Weather forecast update for October 25 at 11 p.m.

After 1.5 to 5.1 “of rain, with much of that rain falling Sunday night overnight, the river and stream flooding is underway.

At Purdue Airport, we broke the daily precipitation record yesterday of 2.52 “. This broke the old record of 0.80” set in 2001 (Purdue University records 1879-1943, Purdue Airport 1944-present ).

The two periods of very humid weather at the beginning and now at the end of October made 2021 the wettest month of October on record! This, after a moderate drought sometimes during the summer!

This is reminiscent of what happened in summer with up to 92% of precipitation in the observation area in June and July falling from late June to early July.

After being so dry at the end of September, October has turned into a historically humid month!

We’re cooling down now, but October was again warm in Grand Lafayette with an average temperature equal to a normal October in Nashville, Tennessee.

11:00 p.m. flood information and forecast from National Weather Service hydrologists:

WABASH RIVER AT LAFAYETTE:

At these levels:

Extensive flooding covers many acres of
agricultural land. State Road 225 closed by high water. Granville
Public access site of the flooded bridge. Tippecanoe CR 950 W south of CR
Flooding from 75 S at several locations from Wabash Bottoms, Janssen
Tract at Warren CR 350 N in the Black Rock Preserve, a
distance of almost 1.5 miles. High water affects Fort Ouiatenon
Region. All the parks in the West Lafayette and Lafayette sectors are
flooded. High water almost on North River Road.

WABASH RIVER IN COVINGTON:

Alleyways to the river residences in the west of the south
River Road south of Covington flooded. Sandhill Road to Mud Run
just northeast of Covington begins to flood. Vast plain
flooding in progress. Flooding of upper lowlands.

WILDCAT CREEK NEAR LAFAYETTE:

Flooding of the plains in progress
parts of Tippecanoe County.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

New precipitation early Thursday-Friday-Saturday is expected to reach 0.50-1.30 “across the area.

Periods of precipitation are expected Thursday through early Saturday as the storm continues to the south of our area, keeping us in southeasterly to easterly then northeasterly winds. This track will maintain the 1970s south of our region and also maintain the risk of severe weather phenomena in the southwest, south and southeast of our region.

The highs will be at 57-63 from Thursday to Saturday with lows in the 50-55 range. This, after partly cloudy weather and 55-60 Tuesday, 36-40 Thursday evening with patchy areas of fog to a few patches of frost and partly cloudy skies with 60-65 Wednesday.

Winds will be north on Tuesday at 13-23 mph and east to east-southeast winds at 10 mph on Wednesday.

Saturday to Monday afternoon will be partly cloudy with highs 57-64 and lows 39-44.

Beyond Tuesday: The trend is to bring frost and frost earlier than a big storm over the Aleutians causes a trough here, then a sprawling Canadian high. However, the impacts of the MJO phase and La Nina will tend to counteract the colder impacts. So, that doesn’t feel as cold as it would be in a neutral year or in a situation where La Nina Modoki is already in place. The atmosphere is already responding to the traditional La Nina now, which could switch to more Modoki by November, leading to cold in December.

Larger numbers of Lafayettes …. They will be cooler or warmer or the same elsewhere in the viewing area.

High / AM Low … Date, Day Conditions

58/42 … Oct. 26, Tue Partly cloudy, N 13-24 mph.

64/38 … oct. 27, Wed. AM Uneven to areas of fog with a few patches of frost in low areas, partly cloudy, wind SEE to SE 10 to 15 mph.

62/51 … oct. 28, Thu Becoming cloudy with periods of rain developing, easterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

61/54 … oct. 29, Fri Periods of rain, E to NE wind 10-15 mph.

60/46 … Oct. 30, Sat A few showers in the morning, mostly cloudy, then partly cloudy. Wind north-northwest 10 to 15 mph.

62/43 … Oct. 31, Sun HALLOWEEN …. Partly cloudy, variable wind 5 mph.

62/42 … Nov. 1, Mon Partly cloudy, wind SW 5-8 mph.

60/50 … Nov. 2, Tue Periods of rain (60%), Wind from SE 5-10 mph Then SW to W 15-25 mph.

53/36 … Nov. 3, partly cloudy to mostly sunny, northwesterly wind 15-25 mph

53/32 … Nov. 4, mostly sunny, NE wind 10-20 mph.

55/30 … Nov. 5, mostly sunny, NE wind 2-5 mph

58/32 … Nov. 6, increasing clouds, wind from SE becoming S 10-15 mph.

59/44 … Nov. 7, mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers, SW 10-20 mph.

71/57 … Nov. 8, mostly cloudy, with periods of showers and thunderstorms (potential MARGINAL RISK for severe cases), SW 15-25 mph.

65F / 52 … Nov. 9, with showers, NW to N to NNE Wind 10 to 20 mph.

47/44 … Nov. 10, cloudy with showers, northwest wind 20-30 mph.

45/30 … Nov. 11, partly cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.

55/26 … Nov. 12, mostly sunny to partly cloudy, E 5-10 mph.

58/36 … Nov. 13, partly cloudy, SE 5-15 mph.

67/50 … Nov. 14, partly cloudy, southerly wind 20-30 mph.

70/57 … Nov. 15, Showers and storms possible (MARGINAL TO LIGHT RISK?), S 20-35 mph.

47F / 33 … Nov. 16, Morning showers, mostly cloudy, NW 20-40 mph.

40/29 … Nov. 17, partly cloudy, W 10-20 mph.

50/25 … Nov. 18, sunny, SW wind 5-10 mph.

59/34 … Nov. 19, cloudiness, evening showers possible, southwesterly wind 15-30 mph.

45/40 … Nov. 20, mostly cloudy, NW 15-30 mph.

46/32 … Nov. 21, glade, NNW 10-15 mph.

55/30 … Nov. 22, darkening, late showers, SE 20-30 mph.

55/45 … Nov. 23, Cloudy, Showers, SW to W Wind 20-30 mph.

36/32 … Nov. 24, cloudy, patchy rain / snow to flurries and snow flurries, NW 20-30 mph.

42/28 … Nov. 25, mostly cloudy, westerly to southwest wind 20-30 mph.

60/42 … Nov. 26, partly to mostly cloudy, a few showers, wind southwest to southwest 25 to 40 mph.

65/54 … Nov. 27, possible rain and storms with serious potential risk, SSW wind 25-45 mph.

52F / 28 … Nov. 28, cloudy, a few showers to flurries, west to northwest wind 25 to 50 mph.

It is possible that we will not go below 20 in November ….. it is POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER once winter roars in early December it will really roar, it still shows up with temperatures below well below normal and a risk of snow. There are signs that we will not fully get out of this pattern before Christmas and then we will have a 3 week long wet and mild period with a lack of snowfall.

The first half until 2/3 of January seems warmer and wetter than normal with below normal snowfall.

Constant and below normal cold temperatures are still forecast for the end of January and for the first half until 2/3 February before we warm up. During this colder period, precipitation appears to be above normal with above normal snowfall.

At this point, spring still seems early with above normal precipitation in March and below normal snowfall.

The trends are for a summer that is cooler and wetter than normal overall with a maximum temperature for the Grand Lafayette at 93, not 100 like last summer. Maximum summer temperatures appear to be 90-94, rather than 95-100 like last summer.

The trends are for El Nino from fall to next winter. Fall cooler and wetter than normal, then drier and warmer than normal in winter. It depends on the strength of El Nino and the type of El Nino and the other players on the pitch.


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Dale D. Schrum