Fantasy Football weather report: week 7
Injuries and multiple goodbye teams have already made Week 7 a nightmare for fantasy managers. Fortunately, the weather will not be a major nuisance this weekend, and I only watch one game while a few more are to watch before Sunday. But, before I get there, I wanted to review a key piece of week 6.
Recap of week 6
I’ll see people posting statistics on weather effects this time of year, and I usually nod my head. There is nothing wrong with them, and I cannot refute the numbers. Also, the take out tends to line up with mine, so it’s okay. But last week I got tagged on a tweet, and it got me thinking.
Some wind problems in KC-WAS, LAC-BAL, LAR-NYG and ARI-CLE on Sunday. A few years ago I looked at the impact of wind speed (15+ mph) on fantastic performance using DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bottom line: Don’t over-adjust. Only a slight blow to the QBs and a slight boost to the RBs. pic.twitter.com/gOwNkN2nMN
– Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 16, 2021
I have QT’d the Barfield analysis with some of my own calculations at the bottom of the towel to crop take-out meals. In short, the meteorological effects analysis approach (sometimes) answers the wrong questions.
Points scored or yards accumulated are the result of an attempt. Whether it’s rushing or passing, the mixture of the two types of attempt helps us measure intention. Other metrics such as fleets and success rates (neutral, deep, red zone) also tell us how each team prefers to function. Thus, any deviation from these measurements can tell us if the weather is affecting a violation.
The wind speed hovered around 20 mph before kickoff in Cleveland. My initial thoughts were centered on a typical day for Cleveland, and Arizona would also function as usual. Other than injuries, the team’s intention has not changed.
|Neutral success rate||80.0%||57.9%|
|Red zone success rate||60.0%||60.0%|
|Deep bullet rate||17.9%||23.3%|
I’m willing to bet that Cleveland’s playing volume has been affected after seeing so many players sidelined. Either way, here’s where we should focus. And where will mine be for future studies. Production (receiving / rushing yards, touchdowns, etc.) already has several other variables linked to it. But the intention of a team is how we can reshape the expectations and projections for a game. I will talk about it in the coming weeks. Let’s take a look at week 7.
Games to watch
BLUF: The 49ers’ game is a legitimate problem. Qualitatively, it will be a downpour visible throughout the match. Worse yet, the rain won’t appear right before kick-off. There will be a thunderstorm all day. As a result, pitch conditions will deteriorate as the players touch the grass. We should lower our expectations for both passing games unless conditions improve by Sunday night.
The other games are “good”. Nothing that wouldn’t affect either team’s game plan, but expect a slip, fumble, or abandoned pass at the worst possible time. But these are not events that can be predicted a priori.
Games impacted by rain
Indianapolis Foals (20 points in total implied) @ San Francisco 49ers (24)
I have already mentioned this game, but the “Mud bowl”Of 2019 is one of the extreme rain games in recent history. If you look at the Highlights recap, you can see the players wading through the puddles five minutes after the match starts. The weather observation of that game looks like what Santa Clara expects to see on Sunday.
|Week 7 2019||Week 7 2020|
|Time||Rain rate||Time||Rain rate|
|2:00 p.m.||0.15||9:00 p.m.||0.16|
|4:00 p.m.||0.05||11:00 AFTERNOON HOURS||0.10|
Even the pre-game conditions are similar. Heavy rain fell in Landover early in the morning before the SF / WAS game. Santa Clara expects rain earlier in the morning, which will turn to heavy rain in the afternoon. Conditions on the pitch will deteriorate by kick-off and continue to deteriorate throughout. The playing surface of Levi’s Stadium is grass (similar to FedEx Field) and has been criticized for poor maintenance. With so many similarities, it’s worth revisiting the 2019 game to see how each offense approached the conditions.
The success rates were all below their benchmarks, indicating that the weather really played a role in the game plan. It is possible that lightning will delay the game. It is also possible that the thunderstorm leaves early. However, fantasy managers should consider other options outside of the game’s primary fantasy assets (e.g. Deebo Samuel, Jonathan Taylor, etc.). A ceiling result will be difficult to envisage if the forecasts are maintained from Thursday.
New Orleans Saints (24) @ Seattle Seahawks (19)
It’s worth watching to see if the precipitation rate gets worse, but it’s okay here. Previous games with 0.03 “(for example, DET / CHI Week 4) were generally unaffected by the elements. They also didn’t differ significantly from our pre-game expectations. Our only concern is whether the Seahawks’ passing game has a plan against the Saints after they leave. Otherwise, I will continue to monitor the forecast and report if things get worse.
Atlanta Falcons (25) @ Miami dolphins (22.5)
Chicago Bear (17) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30)
I group these two games together because they are relatively close. Yes, I am extending the definition of “close”. Yes, I realize they are hundreds of miles apart. Yes, I know they are on the opposite coasts of Florida. Yes, I saw a map. However, it stands to reason that the storms expected to hit Miami will hit Tampa later today.
Winds will come from the east on Sunday and push thunderstorm cells from the east coast of Florida (Miami) to the west coast (Tampa) during the day. The precipitation rates are also similar. So, again, it’s easier to watch the two as they will be weather-bound for Sunday.
Neither precipitation rate is of concern. We may be able to see real rain during the dolphins match (0.04), but this will not affect its result and will only reach its maximum intensity when the match is almost over. The forecast for both games calls for thunderstorms, so a delay is possible for either contest. Either way, at best, unexpected events like a lost pass or fumble can happen during the game.